On the verge of taking office, vague, opportunistic shifts may come to an end
Editor-in-Chief
The electoral promises for today’s
runoff had a life of their own and attained autonomy from the
candidates, their personal records and what they had said the previous
day. Even if trivial, the most recent example was illustrative. Let’s
Change (Cambiemos) leader Mauricio Macri said last Tuesday that he was
considering cancelling the public holidays created by the Kirchner
administrations (about six more than is traditional). Given the reaction
sparked by the non-scripted attack against mini-vacations, Macri
reversed his position within hours. “It was a mere confusion.” All
clarified then.
What a paradigmatic example on the verge of a historic day. The country faces its first presidential runoff and observes the watershed effect which has produced unforeseen regroupings. As if that were not enough for Argentine democracy, the choice comes with the also unprecedented possibility that a conservative political front can win a presidential election, without the mask provided by some branch of Peronism or the Radical (UCR) party, the multifaceted Argentine parties.
Pollsters agree that Macri will dance tonight under falling balloons. However, both Argentine and international experiences of failed forecasts indicate that we should not set off fireworks at noon, even less when the contender is Peronism, which is still — even if less so — a class party (workers, the poor).
Ahead of the second round, Daniel Scioli made every effort to shift the focus to the choice between “conservative austerity” versus “Peronist-style social welfare.” The first round dabbled in dichotomies like “continuity or change,” or “the Republic against populism.” As he did in Buenos Aires City with a patient strategy, Macri has built his bid on broad principles such as goodwill, dialogue and change, which, little by little, have raised his electoral ceiling.
Whether or not Macri is elected president, he will be mustering a number of votes from the impoverished provinces in the North and those popular suburbs of Buenos Aires, Rosario and Córdoba. Years ago Macri managed to pierce the resistance of the middle class that was disgusted by conservative Peronist Carlos Menem and at the time considered the Let’s Change presidential candidate as an iconic representative of crony capitalism. Given the remarkable diversification of his voters, Macri is now much more than the traditional rightwing anti-Peronist elite — characterized as a conservative, market-friendly, wealthy leadership that had few votes to its name.
If a promise to reduce the number of holidays can be backtracked within hours, the same applies for some more serious issues such as the devaluation, the nationalization or privatization of key companies, the negotiation with holdouts (vultures) and fees for utilities. Regarding these four key axes of the first half of next year, Macri said one thing and its opposite, without further explanation — nor questions.
It was predictable that Scioli — following a campaign for the first round based on a vague, bureaucratic inertia — would be forced to push a discussion about the “models in contention” The political arena became sharply defined to leave behind ambiguities about “faith, hope and optimism,” that had added little or nothing to the supposed complementary approval ratings between Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and Scioli.
If the now confrontational Victory Front (FpV) candidate managed to draw a more ideological profile, it didn’t prevent his own u-turn on core issues such as rates for utilities. A few weeks ago, Scioli’s economic advisers promised to put an end to the insane scheme of cheaper electricity rates for an upper-income family than the cost of an average Malbec. Scioli forgot such sincerity and tried to force Macri to answer what he was going to do with public services. With no hesitation, Macri took the query to agree that no increases should be expected.
During the campaign for the runoff, Scioli found an argument calling attention to the social and economic abyss implied by the most radical stances of Macri’s advisers, but failed to outline his own recipe. According to the FpV candidate, subsidies will not be touched, the INDEC statistics bureau is not an issue and the US dollar exchange rate will be in March 2016 the same as it is now. Meanwhile, Chaco farmers continue paying more for power, water or gas than the residents of the trendy Palermo. Argentines realize that inflation data is falsified and basic foods cost more in a supermarket of the City neighbourhood of Once than in Scandinavian Oslo, just as much as they realize that the economic growth is merely weak or even null. Moving from the “safe change” outlined in the first round to simple continuity does not sound very appealing. (Neither Scioli nor Macri granted interviews to this newspaper to clear up the doubts).
At some point, Néstor Kirchner was tempted by the idea of forming a center-left bloc, beyond Peronist borders, in order to confront a conservative one, which could have included the Peronist right. The late president imagined a political landscape divided between left and right, in the style of many Western democracies. Such a project was frustrated by shortcomings and the needs of the Kirchners and their supposed allies. Down the road the FpV arrived at this election with its own version of left-wing Peronism — classic, populist and even conservative allies in provinces, all of them led by a candidate who basically flies the flag of “moderation.”
After 12 years of Kirchnerite administrations, a conservative, liberal bloc won major institutional positions for the first time ever and perhaps today it has a good chance at taking the main office. Macri did his homework but now with a big challenge ahead, the time for such an overwhelming vagueness is over.
@sebalacunza
What a paradigmatic example on the verge of a historic day. The country faces its first presidential runoff and observes the watershed effect which has produced unforeseen regroupings. As if that were not enough for Argentine democracy, the choice comes with the also unprecedented possibility that a conservative political front can win a presidential election, without the mask provided by some branch of Peronism or the Radical (UCR) party, the multifaceted Argentine parties.
Pollsters agree that Macri will dance tonight under falling balloons. However, both Argentine and international experiences of failed forecasts indicate that we should not set off fireworks at noon, even less when the contender is Peronism, which is still — even if less so — a class party (workers, the poor).
Ahead of the second round, Daniel Scioli made every effort to shift the focus to the choice between “conservative austerity” versus “Peronist-style social welfare.” The first round dabbled in dichotomies like “continuity or change,” or “the Republic against populism.” As he did in Buenos Aires City with a patient strategy, Macri has built his bid on broad principles such as goodwill, dialogue and change, which, little by little, have raised his electoral ceiling.
Whether or not Macri is elected president, he will be mustering a number of votes from the impoverished provinces in the North and those popular suburbs of Buenos Aires, Rosario and Córdoba. Years ago Macri managed to pierce the resistance of the middle class that was disgusted by conservative Peronist Carlos Menem and at the time considered the Let’s Change presidential candidate as an iconic representative of crony capitalism. Given the remarkable diversification of his voters, Macri is now much more than the traditional rightwing anti-Peronist elite — characterized as a conservative, market-friendly, wealthy leadership that had few votes to its name.
If a promise to reduce the number of holidays can be backtracked within hours, the same applies for some more serious issues such as the devaluation, the nationalization or privatization of key companies, the negotiation with holdouts (vultures) and fees for utilities. Regarding these four key axes of the first half of next year, Macri said one thing and its opposite, without further explanation — nor questions.
It was predictable that Scioli — following a campaign for the first round based on a vague, bureaucratic inertia — would be forced to push a discussion about the “models in contention” The political arena became sharply defined to leave behind ambiguities about “faith, hope and optimism,” that had added little or nothing to the supposed complementary approval ratings between Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and Scioli.
If the now confrontational Victory Front (FpV) candidate managed to draw a more ideological profile, it didn’t prevent his own u-turn on core issues such as rates for utilities. A few weeks ago, Scioli’s economic advisers promised to put an end to the insane scheme of cheaper electricity rates for an upper-income family than the cost of an average Malbec. Scioli forgot such sincerity and tried to force Macri to answer what he was going to do with public services. With no hesitation, Macri took the query to agree that no increases should be expected.
During the campaign for the runoff, Scioli found an argument calling attention to the social and economic abyss implied by the most radical stances of Macri’s advisers, but failed to outline his own recipe. According to the FpV candidate, subsidies will not be touched, the INDEC statistics bureau is not an issue and the US dollar exchange rate will be in March 2016 the same as it is now. Meanwhile, Chaco farmers continue paying more for power, water or gas than the residents of the trendy Palermo. Argentines realize that inflation data is falsified and basic foods cost more in a supermarket of the City neighbourhood of Once than in Scandinavian Oslo, just as much as they realize that the economic growth is merely weak or even null. Moving from the “safe change” outlined in the first round to simple continuity does not sound very appealing. (Neither Scioli nor Macri granted interviews to this newspaper to clear up the doubts).
At some point, Néstor Kirchner was tempted by the idea of forming a center-left bloc, beyond Peronist borders, in order to confront a conservative one, which could have included the Peronist right. The late president imagined a political landscape divided between left and right, in the style of many Western democracies. Such a project was frustrated by shortcomings and the needs of the Kirchners and their supposed allies. Down the road the FpV arrived at this election with its own version of left-wing Peronism — classic, populist and even conservative allies in provinces, all of them led by a candidate who basically flies the flag of “moderation.”
After 12 years of Kirchnerite administrations, a conservative, liberal bloc won major institutional positions for the first time ever and perhaps today it has a good chance at taking the main office. Macri did his homework but now with a big challenge ahead, the time for such an overwhelming vagueness is over.
@sebalacunza