By Sebastián Lacunza
Editor-in-Chief
Will the region back Foreign Minister Susana Malcorra?
She is a woman, has a solid experience in international negotiations and is a respected official within the UN bureaucracy. She also represents a country from a region that has not headed the international organization since 1992. That is where Susana Malcorra’s candidacy to be elected the ninth UN Secretary General gains strength.
On the other side, the Argentine Foreign minister must overcome hurdles that, in some cases, she shares with the other — until now — nine candidates for the position, but she also faces her own weaknesses.
The common decisive step for every hopeful to head the body is to avoid the veto of any permanent member of the UN Security Council (US, UK, Russia, France and China), which according to the regulations is in charge of elevating the nominations before the General Assembly.
This matter is settled — as many accept in the diplomatic arena — in two capitals: Washington and Moscow. “France and the UK often agree with the US decision, while China has demonstrated a pragmatic approach, otherwise (South Korean) Ban Ki-Moon wouldn’t be the current secretary-general,” said Roberto García Moritán, former deputy foreign minister (2005-08).
The task of persuading Russians and Americans at once lies with all of Malcorra’s competitors (see page 6). In the particular case of the Argentine, the distrust of London regarding the Malvinas issue must be added. Trying to dispel those doubts, the Argentine Foreign minister visited her British counterpart Philip Hammond in London ten days ago.
Malcorra showed signs that the dispute over the territorial sovereignty can be less central in the relationship between London and Buenos Aires. The attempt involves risks.
First, it is not possible to measure how much the David Cameron administration willingly accepts that two Argentines occupy two primary stages of the world — the Vatican and East Midtown Manhattan. Secondly, but even more important, former Foreign minister Dante Caputo (UCR, 1983-1989) warned in a recent op-ed in La Nación that putting Malvinas on the negotiating table for the Malcorra’s candidacy would be a serious misstep.
The tacit agreement indicates that it is Eastern Europe’s turn after the mandates of Austrian Kurt Waldheim (1972-1982), Peruvian Javier Pérez de Cuellar (1982-1992), Egyptian Boutros-Ghali (1992-1996), Ghanaian Kofi Annan (1996-2007) and South Korean Ban (2007-2016). Practice suggests an unofficial rotation between the peripheries of the world, so that Latin America should wait for another period. However, as half a dozen European applicants would find objections either from Russia or the US, the scenario is open for other latitudes. “As Africa and Asia have just completed their mandates, it is understood that a Latin American candidate has more chances,” said García Moritán (who became a strong opponent to the Cristina Fernández de Kirchner government and now advises the Let’s Change administration).
Malcorra’s role in Macri’s administration is a coin with two faces. On the one hand, the shift in Argentina’s government was warmly welcomed by the US, Italy, Spain and the UK, among others.
Prevented by sins of the past, Washington has been calling on “regional efforts” to intervene in Nicolás Maduro’s Venezuela. Macri rapidly got into action and launched an offensive against Caracas even before taking office.
Venezuela does not enjoy an excess of allies. If Macri’s overreaction could have triggered a visit by Barack Obama, it also earned the indifference of the neighbourhood — no one in Latin America joined Macri’s stance to exclude Venezuela from the Mercosur and Unasur blocs. The first alignment effort was followed by others but — it must be admitted — they avoided diplomatic obscenities like “carnal relations” with Washington.
Malcorra is juggling to accommodate the tone to a more consistent framework according the diversity of Latin America today, but the high profile adopted by the government she belongs to doesn’t help to generate a regional consensus. The unconscionable reaction reappeared in the instant backing of the interim government in Brazil. Perhaps waiting for half a day would have been useful to avoid being associated with the conservative Brazilian Michel Temer, who suffers from a lack of international prestige.
Itamaraty sources told the Herald that although there is no official position yet, the Brazilian vote will go for Malcorra. “It is important for the region.”
Meanwhile, Pablo Gentili, executive secretary of the Latin American Council of Social Sciences, warns that the affection of the Brazilian government for the Argentine counterpart should not be overestimated, “Beyond any ideological issue or temporary slogan, Macri wants to be the new star of Latin American politics and many in Brazil want to be too. Temer will not be by any means, but Argentina can play the leadership while Brazil wallows in a political crisis, only for a while.”
“We are not going to support Malcorra unless a joint decision takes place in the Unasur,” an Ecuadorian official who required anonymity said to the Herald. An unanimous decision will not happen, so not only Ecuador will be released from such a commitment.
Although her tenure as Ban’s chief-of-staff strengthens Malcorra, her period at the UN is also open to public scrutiny. In that sense, the claim that the now Argentine Foreign minister tried to close an investigation about abuses by peacekeepers in Central African Republic, even if far from being proven, at least toured prestigious international publications. Rivals could — diplomatically — exploit the issue.
Surveys generally agree that Malcorra is one of the best rated Argentine ministers belonging to a Cabinet where political experience is not a surplus. Malcorra is not an experienced politician, but she has accumulated mileage and harsh negotiations with partners.
The chancellor no longer belongs to the world of “CEOs” that characterizes Macri’s government. Her past as a high-raking executive at Telecom Argentina has since been far outweighed by the long years with Ban.
This is a win-win game for Macri. If the move at the UN goes well, the Casa Rosada will have scored a political triumph. If Malcorra ends up not being elected UN secretary-general, her name will grow and it will give her more power.
@sebalacunza