Massa restarts the renewal

Dissident peronist clinches budget and territory with his new partner

By Sebastián Lacunza
Editor-in-Chief

Sitting at the table in the lobby of a hotel in Recoleta, a Latin American politician did not hide the bitter taste caused by a meeting he had had with Sergio Massa. “He spent the entire time checking his smartphone without looking at me. This kind of contempt doesn’t affect me; I told him what I thought about his candidacy — it’s over,” this foreign leader, who plays in the big leagues in his country and used to have a close relationship with the Kirchners, told the Herald.
Córdoba governor, José Manuel de la Sota, reproduced an identical experience in the chapter “With God and with the devil” of the recent book I want and I can, perhaps without expecting that by May he would find himself as a partner with Massa in the United for a New Argentina (UNA) front. In those pages, De la Sota wrote that Massa made clear his contempt by not paying attention to him at all during a private meeting in 2013, with the mobile phone occupying the centre stage again, as the Clarín newspaper reported on Thursday.
It seems strange. Although De la Sota considered that Massa’s speeches are full of “platitudes” and written “for the choir, without any definition in depth,” no one can deny that the Tigre former mayor is a leader who weighs each word he utters before public audiences. It was evident in Friday’s demonstration at Vélez stadium, which seemed scripted to the smallest details. However, Massa’s private behaviour has played him several tricks when it becomes public for any reason. Reading his political alliances reveals that his personal approach with partners often do not strengthen the link.
Starting last summer, grim prospects have affected Massa’s presidential hopes. The media conglomerates that overacted in 2013 and 2014 highlighting even his most banal phrases — “to an unprecedented level,” as the centre-left leader Margarita Stolbizer said — now show him the card of indifference and sarcasm.
Forecasts should not be anticipated so far ahead. The excessive enthusiasm of 2013 has perhaps led to a disproportionately ominous mood.
In what was Massa’s first test as a leader of his own project, the 2013 mid-terms, he got nearly 43 percent of the vote in nothing less than Buenos Aires province. When he finally broke with the government under which he had served as Cabinet chief, he tried to occupy the middle ground, an elusive political place to confront the leftist or populist Latin American governments. While the Renewal Front expressed commitment to maintaining social rights such as the universal child allowance and pension coverage, on the other hand the proposal included tough-on-crime approaches, targeted the income tax, promoted new relationships with the Judiciary and foreign policy, as well as ending the falsification of the INDEC figures. The cliché “keeping the good and changing what is wrong” — summarized the stance.
The strategy was not sustained over time. As soon as the 2013 primary was won, Massa’s speech played a more aggressive tone, tempted to satisfy the more inflamed headlines.
More disappointments emerged with the allies that the Renewal Front had managed to entice. When Massa launched his candidacy, leaders from Kirchnerism, traditional Peronism, Elisa Carrió’s Civic Coalition, UCR, PRO, rightist and centrist unions answered the call. They were many, even though none of them went above the middle-ranking leadership. Yet in 2014 and so far this year, the former Tigre mayor only got disreputable Peronists leaders and barely managed to join photo-ops to celebrate other forces’ provincial wins. Few inspiring figures to refresh a project called the Renewal Front .
Without a clearly-defined rhetoric, a big public advertising budget, no party structure beyond BA province and with media allies taking distance, Massa’s bid entered shaky ground. In contrast, Macri and the Kirchnerite hopeful — be it a pure representative or Daniel Scioli — don’t suffer any of those problems. The picture becomes even more gloomy with Massa’s failed choices, such as his candidate for the City Government, Guillermo Nielsen, who confessed that his communications with his political boss were by... instant messaging!.
Then, the alliance with De la Sota, a long standing candidate for president — his first attempt dates back to 1994— emerges. The need overcame years of distrust.
The Córdoba governor is unlikely to add many votes for UNA front beyond the borders of his province. Now that Massa’s candidacy seems devalued, De la Sota’s name is ready to be bandied about for the next four months before the primaries — that’s the upside of the deal for him. As for Massa, it would have been risky to arrive at an August primary without a contender to challenge his ticket while Macri and Scioli are going to face their own primaries. But above all, De la Sota manages a public advertising budget. While Buenos Aires province (Massa’s stronghold) is home to about 38 percent of the electoral register, Córdoba adds another 9 percent. With 47 percent of the national vote at stake, the newly created UNA ticket may attract 30 percent in those provinces, which would mean a significant starting point while it would set a limit to Mauricio Macri in one fell swoop.
Argentina’s political scene is dynamic enough so as not to predict more than is necessary. Now that almost half of Buenos Aires City voters just proved PRO competitiveness, the opposition media do not hide their preferences, the ruling party plays the game with its own media allies against a sharper and less competitive opponent in the Peronist arena, while pollsters show their surveys... Mauricio Macri should not confuse a wave with a rising tide.
@sebalacunza